Free interactive pavement tool
Deferred Pavement Risk & NOI Scenario Model
Separate recurring operating exposure from the one-time repair liability, then test the result across a cap-rate range.
- Free, no signup
- Results on submit
- Planning estimate, not a quote
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Calculator
Enter the project assumptions
Complete the inputs, then calculate. If an assumption changes, submit again to refresh the documented result.
Scenario assumptions
NOI scenario
Complete the inputs
Before you use the result
What this estimate covers
Deferred pavement work can create recurring operating exposure through emergency repairs, lost income, tenant concessions, and other property-level costs. Those costs can be modeled as NOI drag, but they should not be treated as certain unless they are already occurring.
Build an explicit scenario using separate cost categories, a probability assumption, a deferral period, and a cap-rate range. The output keeps recurring NOI sensitivity separate from the known repair liability so the same cost is not counted twice.
Transparent assumptions
How this calculator works
Expected annual drag. Entered annual exposures are multiplied by the selected probability instead of being assumed to occur with certainty.
Cap-rate sensitivity. Expected recurring NOI drag is divided by the low and high cap rates to show a value-sensitivity range.
Separate decision lines. Cash drag over the deferral period, recurring value sensitivity, and current repair cost are reported independently.
Formula used
- Expected annual NOI drag = Annual exposure × Probability
- Capitalized sensitivity = Expected annual NOI drag ÷ Cap rate
- Cash drag over deferral = Expected annual NOI drag × Years deferred
- Simple payback = Repair cost ÷ Expected annual NOI drag
Frequently asked questions
How does deferred maintenance affect property value?
Deferred work may create one-time repair liability and recurring operating costs such as emergency work, lost income, or concessions. This tool models recurring NOI sensitivity separately from the known repair cost so the same exposure is not counted twice.
How do you calculate the value impact of NOI?
Using direct capitalization: value equals NOI divided by the cap rate. So a change in annual NOI changes value by that amount divided by the cap rate. At a 7% cap rate, a $6,000 annual NOI drag corresponds to roughly $86,000 of value.
What cap rate should I use?
Use the market cap rate for your asset class and location — the rate comparable properties are trading at. Lower cap rates (premium markets) magnify the value impact of NOI changes; higher cap rates reduce it. If you're unsure, a broker or appraiser can provide a market range.
Is this a substitute for an appraisal?
No. It's a directional model to support board and ownership conversations, not a valuation. Actual value depends on lease structure, buyer underwriting, market conditions, and much more. Use it to frame the decision, then rely on qualified professionals for valuation.
When the plan is ready
Need a contractor for the work?
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For property owners
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Use The Pavement Directory to search asphalt, concrete, sealcoating, striping, ADA access, and pavement maintenance contractors by service and location. Always verify license, insurance, references, and written scope before hiring.
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Before you hire: Costs vary by region, project size, access, materials, labor, traffic control, disposal, site conditions, and scope. Use written proposals and contractor-specific pricing before making decisions.